Uma análise qualitativa do impacto dos investimentos Financiados pelo BNDES na Região Norte do Brasil de 2004 a 2018

Abstract

The Northern Region is considered the largest in territorial extension of Brazil, however, the second least populated. Throughout its history, economic dynamics have been concentrated in sectors of plant and mineral extraction, giving it prominence in the composition of the Brazilian trade balance. There are numerous challenges for the region, especially in addressing social, economic and structural disparities within the region and in relation to other more developed Brazilian regions. Indexes such as education, health, safety, income and employment are among those most in need of attention. To this end, the role of the state is necessary through public policies of integration, income distribution, education, infrastructure, sanitation and public safety, in order to improve the living conditions of northern Brazil. In this sense, investment plays an important role for the development of this region. In addition to the importance that private investment has for the economy, state financing also plays a prominent role in making investment. There are several theories dedicated to conceptually explaining investment and how this variable is important for the economy. These include John Maynard Keynes' contribution to Keynesian theory, Neoclassical theory, Tobin's q theory, Growth Accelerator theory, among others. Based on the idea of a developmental state, BNDES was born in 1952 with the objective of being the main instrument of execution of the Federal Government's investment policy and to support programs, projects, works and services that relate to the economic and social development of the country. Based on the Project Investment Impact Thesis (Tiip), this work makes use of a project evaluation methodology created by BNDES. The variables used are National, Environmental, Social, Regional and Customer Economics, with a scale for each of them from 0 to 5 for the positive effects, and from -5 to 0 for the negative effects. This methodology is used by BNDES itself, but undergoes adaptations for an ex post evaluation of the implementation of the Urucu - Coari - Manaus, Alcoa Aluminum Pipeline in Juriti, Onça Puma and Salobo projects in order to evaluate their impacts on the northern region of Brazil.