Maldição dos recursos naturais e os municípios mineradores do Pará: uma análise comparativa do desempenho de indicadores socioeconômicos no ano de 2010

Abstract

In general, empirical evidence for countries with high endowments of natural resources indicates that they suffer from low economic growth in the long run. However, there are indications that the performance of Brazilian mining states is positive, an aspect that contrasts with the literature on the paradox of abundance. It should be noted, however, that economic growth may not influence the performance of socioeconomic indicators. Therefore, and based on this discussion, the present work seeks to answer two questions: 1) what is the effect of receiving a considerable volume of mining royalties (CFEM) on the performance of municipalities in Pará in terms of socioeconomic indicators? 2) is it possible to consider, on average, that these municipalities differ quantitatively and qualitatively from those that do not receive a considerable volume of mining royalties? To answer these questions, the Propensity Score Matching technique (PSM) was used, using variables from the 2010 IBGE Census for five dimensions: a) inequality, based on the Gini index; b) human development, based on the IDHM; c) education, based on the years of study; d) poverty, based on the proportion of poor people, and; e) income, based on per capita income. The use of this technique sought to identify the municipalities that are most similar in terms of size (GDP and population), as well as indicators related to employability, health and education, for the purpose of comparing the five dimensions selected here. The results show that the socioeconomic indicators of the municipalities that do not receive a considerable amount of CFEM from mining are marginally better than the indicators of the municipalities that receive high amounts of this royalty. Furthermore, in qualitative and historical terms, it was possible to observe, based on data from the 1991 and 2000 Census for the same indicators, that these results are similar throughout this period. Indeed, the main conclusion of this work suggests that being a municipality with high mining activity in the state of Pará, and with that, having acquired large volumes of mining royalties, until the year 2010, did not contribute significantly to the improvement of the socioeconomic indicators when comparing the performance, on average, of these municipalities with other similar municipalities in the sample.