Análise multidimensional do desenvolvimento rural na Amazônia Legal: níveis, determinantes e análise espacial regional

Abstract

The Legal Amazon is a territory that corresponds to about 58.9% of the Brazilian territory and was created with the objective of geopolitical delimitation and the purpose of attracting tax incentives to promote its regional development. It is a region that had an occupation strategically promoted by the federal government through the valorization of large private capital projects, construction of highways and encouragement of population migration in the region through the construction of rural settlements. Actions that have caused, over time, an unequal distribution of development and growing agrarian conflicts, significantly configuring the Amazonian rural space. That said, this dissertation research work aims to analyze rural development in municipalities in the Brazilian Legal Amazon in its multiple dimensions (sociodemographic, institutional political, economic, environmental and technological), as it considers that rural development is a multidimensional and multifaceted process encompassing a set of interacting indicators. To achieve the proposed objective, some empirical methods were used, the Factor Analysis by Principal Components to measure the levels of development (RDI - Rural Development Index), then the spatiality of this development in the region and the formation of a cluster of (sub) development through Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (AEDE) - I of Moran global and LISA. Finally, the determinants of this rural development were estimated through spatial regressions (cross section and panel). Based on the 38 selected variables, a Rural Development Index was built for 771 municipalities in the Legal Amazon, which identified that most municipalities (62.77%), that is, 484 municipalities are below the average of rural development found for the Region. In 2006, the states that presented an average of development above the average for the Region were Acre, Amazonas, Pará and Rondônia and in 2017 a similar situation is observed with the addition of the State of Roraima. The states of Amapá and Tocantins stood out among the states with low levels of development in the region for being below average. Spatially, it found a spatial pattern not very different between the two years (2006 and 2017), and in 2006, there were 7 spatial patterns of development, 3 of which were high-high cluster (AA) and 4 low- low (BB) rural development, the largest AA-type rural development cluster is in the state of Pará and the largest BB-type cluster is in the state of Tocantins. And for the year 2017, similar to 2016, 7 spatial patterns were formed, 2 high-high patterns (AA), with an increase in the cluster in Pará, and 5 low-low patterns (BB), increasing in the state of Tocantins. The possible determinants of rural development in the region were also verified and the results generated show that the variables that include education, family farming, employment, pib per capita and vab per capita have positive impacts on rural development in the region's municipalities. Furthermore, these results can facilitate the delimitation and implementation of public policies in the region according to local specificities.